World Energy Crisis

This book was born from the realization that the contemporary international system operates in a context of structural transition whose consequences no one can fully anticipate, but whose probabilities we can explore through rigorous analysis and scenario thinking. The unleashing of direct conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran in February 2026 would represent a turning point in global geopolitical dynamics that would reverberate across multiple dimensions: military, energy, economic, financial, and humanitarian. While this book devotes particular attention to war as a military event, its real focus is on the systemic consequences and international restructuring that would result from such a conflict. The accumulated experience of previous international crises (the Gulf Wars of 1991 and 2003, the energy crises of 1973 and 1979, the financial crisis of 2008) provides precedents that allow us to structure the analysis of possible futures. However, each crisis has unique characteristics that distinguish it from previous crises, and therefore extrapolation from historical precedents is a dangerous exercise that requires careful qualification.

The genesis of this book dates back to discussions that the author had throughout 2023-2024 with multiple interlocutors in the fields of international security, energy policy, international political economy and Portuguese strategic thinking. There was a significant gap in the Portuguese-language literature on the analysis of catastrophic scenarios in the context of the Middle East and their implications for Portugal and Europe. While English-language literature had quality works of strategic analysis on these themes (particularly work by Brzezinski, Mearsheimer, and other great strategists), Portuguese analysis was often reduced to the reproduction of Western narratives or the complete neglect of critical geopolitical issues. Portugal, as a full member of the European Union and NATO, as an open economy highly integrated into global supply chains, and as a power with strategic responsibilities in a European foreign policy dimension, needed the capacity for independent scenario analysis that could guide policymakers and that could inform the educated population about strategic challenges that Portugal faces. This book is an early attempt to fill that gap.

The perspective that structures this book is explicitly realistic in international relations: we operate under the assumption that states function in an anarchic international system where there is no central authority, and that consequently states pursue power and security interests through strategic cost-benefit calculations, often subject to constraints of material capacity, imperfect information, and poor political leadership. This realist perspective does not predispose us to automatic pessimism (some conflicts can be prevented, some cooperations can be achieved) or determinism (outcomes are not predetermined), but it offers a coherent framework for understanding how international actors actually operate in practice. Complementing realism, we incorporate insights from institutionalist theory about how institutions can constrain behavior and reduce uncertainty, and insights from the constructivist perspective about how identities and interests are socially constructed and therefore can be transformed through political and diplomatic processes. The combination of these theoretical perspectives provides a more robust analytical lens than any one of them alone could offer.

Hermínio Cerqueira
March 2026